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October 23, 2009
LEST WE FORGET: Today marks the 26th anniversary of the Oct 23 1983 bombing of the United States Marine barracks in Beirut. The memorial on the grounds of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut reads, “They came in peace.”
We honor their memory and the sacrifice of the 241 American servicemen who gave their lives that day in service of their country while protecting the stability of Lebanon.
Gerard Group honors all of our brave men and women who have died in the service to their country. To them we owe our lives, our liberty, and our devotion to the principles that have made our country great.
Feature Article: Chinese Intel Active in America
By Konstantin Preobrazhinsky
FLASHPOINT: Iran - Analysis
US Policy on Iran - Slow Train to Disaster
America's reluctance to take a strong position against Iran's nuclear ambitions is signaling weakness to Middle Eastern leaders, from Algeria to Pakistan. When we take soft positions against Iran, whether it be their nuclear development, ruthless repression of popular dissent, threats against the continued existence of Israel, or holocaust denial, we appear weak and exploitable in their Middle Eastern eyes. When we promote round after round of endless negotiations in place of strong commercial sanctions or military options, the cultures of the Middle East equate them with proof that we do not have the political will to confront them. It is intrinsic within their culture to use the gift of the negotiation period as an opportunity for continued nuclear buildup, while we dally over text and language.
For many years, our foreign policy has suffered from a naïve belief that people in the rest of the world want what we want and think like we do, regardless of their religious, cultural, or historical backgrounds. The truth is that in most cases, they do not. More often than not, their cultures and historical contexts assign different priorities to their personal and collective goals, and see ours as shallow (at best) or evil. As long as we refuse to understand that simple truth, we will continue to lose ground in our foreign policy. That loss of ground has resulted in the depreciation of American prestige, credibility, respect, and influence in every area of our international presence.
The Trouble with Negotiations Dictionary.com defines 'negotiation' as a "mutual discussion and arrangement of the terms of a transaction or agreement between two or more parties". The operative word here is 'mutual' and it points to the specific problem bogging down US foreign policy as it applies across the board. Seasoned negotiators will tell you that the best result of a negotiation occurs when all parties are able to leave the table with the feeling that they have benefited from the outcome. However, when we place our hopes and expectations on the fruits of 'discussions in good faith' with partners whose good faith is at best questionable, then we have lost this goal before we even begin.
America's negotiating strategy depends on the good faith of our counterparts at the table. It assumes their good faith, despite significant evidence to the contrary.
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions We assume, for example, that Iran is willing to negotiate in good faith in order to avoid international sanctions and participate in the global community as an ally of the US. We ignore the fact that Iran has built its own international strategy on another concept entirely, one that we consistently refuse to acknowledge: that while we dither along the long road of drawn out negotiations and 'monitoring selected nuclear facilities, they will continue to use the time that these meetings afford them to continue to build the very nuclear capabilities that the talks are designed to halt. In other words, they use the delays created by the negotiations to further their activities, with no intention of actually living up to any agreements attained from the negotiations.
We also avoid weighing the potential consequences of Iran’s nuclear program whether we contain it or whether we refrain from containing it. Have we forgotten the 40,000 suicide terrorists of whom Ahmadinejad boasted when he threatened to activate them if Iran’s nuclear program was targeted?
And in the mean time, are we missing the changing power structure within the government that is suggesting a weakening of the power center of the Mullahs and a shifting of power to Ahmadinejad (once thought to be only a mouthpiece to the Mullahs) and his Iranian Republican Guard (IRGC)? As the balance of power shifts, and the dynamics of local politics changes, we ignore another element, which is the rising tide of popular dissent, despite the vicious repressive tactics that Iran imposes on those they arrest—rape, torture, and murder—while our official posture is one of ignoring the most basic human rights violations.
Israel - Palestinian Conflict This situation is not dissimilar from the 'negotiations' that we have been foisting upon Israel in their conflict with the Palestinians for many years. We continue to insist that Palestinian leaders have come to the table as good faith partners to peace, despite their open aggression against the Israeli civilian population.
We ignore open statements of Palestinian leaders that Israel's ultimate destruction is their only goal and that anything short of that is simply a way station along the way to achieving that purpose. When they talk about a ‘contiguous state’ we ignore the fact that this means the de facto splitting of Israel right down the middle of the country, or worse, the total destruction of Israel as a national entity. When PA President walked away from ‘peace’ talks only a month ago, saying that the Palestinians and the Israelis had ‘no common ground’, our response was silence. ‘Peace’ talks have been going on for decades, shepherded by a series of US Presidents from both parties, with neither progress nor peace as an outcome. Meanwhile, Hamas and Hizballa, with massive support from Iran, continues to fire the conflict.
We missed the significance of the shifting power centers as Hamas' "legitimate election" was hailed as a victory for democracy, and former President Jimmy Carter declared it ‘fair and open’. He ignored the fraudulent and even brutal tactics employed by Hamas to ensure victory at the ballot box. But what followed was a period of unprecedented internecine violence between Hamas and the PA, and the rise of a tyrannical and decidedly undemocratic regime that exploited and brutalized its own people, used them as human shields by installing anti-Israeli missiles within heavily populated areas.
In neither of these two key conflicts have we given even minimal attention to the cultures of the ‘negotiating’ partners that explain their willingness to enter into the talks with no intentions of abiding by the outcomes.
Smart Policy Requires Cultural Intelligence
Our lack of attention to how cultural differences can affect the outcome of critical international strategy and policy decisions is damaging American interests everywhere. In order to regain a meaningful position in the theater of world affairs, international policy must be informed by cultural intelligence; that is, a solid understanding of the cultural perceptions that drive the policies and actions of other nations.
Our failure to understand those with whom we are dealing is fraught with danger, and dooms our strategic efforts in the world arena to failure, because it implies two critical points to our counterparts: the first is our underlying arrogance and lack of respect for their deeply held beliefs, which offends and insults them deeply; the second is a demonstration of what is perceived as great weakness by those whose cultures respect only those they can respect as powerful adversaries.
The day of the ugly American should be long over, but we have yet to accept responsibility for the obligations of leadership, understanding the diverse cultures that drive global events, correctly identifying those who would hurt us and developing appropriate strategies with which to deal with them, recognizing and rewarding our real allies, and earning international respect by acting with courage and integrity in a world whose events are driven by ego and greed, and fraught with perfidy.
Ilana Freedman is CEO and Senior Analyst at Gerard Group International, Inc.
FLASHPOINT UPDATE: Pakistan
The situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate
Even while the Pakistani government announced today that the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) network in Kotkai has been dismantled and that the ‘terrorists are on the run’, the situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate. A combination of government corruption, incompetence, and confusion, coupled with the infiltration of both the government and the military with Taliban activists and sympathizers, has created a disheartening and exceedingly dangerous situation. And the terrorist attacks are accelerating.
On Sunday, October 25, while Pakistani troops were concentrating on fighting the TTP in south Waziristan, a week of terrorist activity throughout the country, that killed more than 150 people, was culminated further south in Baluchistan, when gunmen opened indiscriminate fire on the home of Education Minister Shafique Ahmed Khanm, killing him on the spot.
In fact, the TTP are taking advantage of the concentration of the Pakistani army in Waziristan to mount attacks across a broad swath of northern and central Pakistan, where concerns for the safety of Pakistan's nuclear facilities continue to grow. Earlier this week, a suicide bomber struck a checkpoint near a military complex, one which was reportedly linked to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.
This is the fourth time since 2007 that terrorists have attacked a target near a Pakistani nuclear facility. Analysts have raised the possibility that this attack was a probe to elicit information about its security. According to our sources, the bomber approached the first check post outside the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra on foot, and detonated his explosives when he was stopped by security guards. Pakistan's military does not reveal where its nuclear weapons are stored. However, the Kamra site is considered one of several possible sites connected to the country's nuclear program, although the Pakistani government has denied this.
Several issues concern the experts regarding the possibility of the Taliban seizing Pakistan's nuclear facilities. Our sources tell us that the bombs themselves may be protected by a series of mechanical and electronic fail-safe protection devices that will foil an attempt to detonate them. However, the mere fact that these devices may fall into Taliban hands raises many questions, not the least of which is India's response to such an event. Another question regards the relationship between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban, al Qaeda, and the smaller satellite organizations of al Qaeda such as Lashkar e-Taiba (LET), including the role that they may play in support of these accelerating attacks.
Since the summer, the TTP has spread its violent operations southward towards the Pakistani heartland. Recent attacks in Lahore, the cultural capital of Pakistan, have demonstrated howv quickly the Taliban are moving. Last week, teams of gunmen attacked law enforcement facilities throughout city of Lahore in an escalating wave of terror.
The Pakistani people, who have been largely ignored in the reporting of this conflict, continue to be increasingly concerned for their future and that of the country. In order to engage thev Taliban without having to worry about civilian casualties, the Pakistani government has forced local residents of southern Waziristan to evacuate their villages. Those who have been ‘relocated’ are now facing unimaginable hardships. Many of their homes have been destroyed in the fighting, and their worldly goods now consist of what they could carry out with them. They now endure an extraordinarily difficult existence, under often shocking conditions. Meanwhile, those who live in the relative comfort of the cities are watching the systems that support their lives become increasingly dysfunctional, and our sources report that many who are able to do so are leaving Pakistan entirely.
As the TTP continue their infiltration throughout the country, residents believe it is only a matter of time before they begin attacks on the more southern regions of Pakistan, including the southernmost city and official capital of Pakistan, Karachi. Pakistan’s dysfunctional government, fighting an asymmetrical war with conventional tactics, and displacing its population into shockingly inadequate refugee camps, provides all of its citizens and the nation as a whole with a perilous and uncertain future.
Ilana Freedman is senior analyst for Gerard Group International. She can be contacted at ilana@gerardgroup.com.
Chinese Intelligence Penetrates Uighurs In America
China is one of the top five intelligence collectors in the United States, relying on immigrants whose families remain in China. Among those immigrants are the Uyghur, who come from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in central China. Many of them reject China's rule over their traditional homeland. Nevertheless, Chinese intelligence is trying to penetrate the organizations of the Uyghur immigrants in the US using traditional KGB method of human intelligence, by recruiting Uyghur nationals as their agents and introducing them to the Uyghur organizations here.
Alim Seytoff, Vice-President of Uyghur American Association in Washington, has told me the following: "Many young Uyghur immigrants have approached us to report that the Chinese intelligence has urged them to spy on their compatriots in America. They were advised to show their dislike of China in their private conversations with other Uyghurs, and even to take part in the demonstrations of protest near the Chinese Embassy." They are told that this might help them to be promoted to the elected leading positions at the Uyghur organizations.
The Chinese are clear about the process. "After you have done that, we shall find you and tell what to do next," Alim Seytoff said.
This is very familiar pattern. The KGB (now the FSB) has been introducing "sleepers" into the Russian dissident and emigrant organizations for a very long time.
Another form of coercion which the Chinese authorities are using is to urge American Uyghurs to spy by putting pressure on their families who remained in China. "One US member of the Muslim Uyghur ethnic group has charged that Chinese officials are holding his family under house arrest to pressure him into spying for them.
"In the last 10 years, my children have been living under house arrest… and the government did not issue them passports," Uyghur businessman Parhat Yasin told Radio Free Asia's Uyghur service.
"The secret police of the State Security Bureau have phoned me many times to work for them. They said they would let my children go if I work for them," he said.
A recent escalation in pressure has been reported this week. According to Human Rights Watch, dozens of members of China's Uighur minority including children remain unaccounted more than three months after being rounded up by Chinese security forces. The group said it has documented the disappearances of 43 men and boys in China's Xinjiang region, but that the real number was likely to be much higher.
Parhat recorded two conversations with unidentified people speaking Uyghur, who urged him to spy on the exiled Uyghurs in the United States, in return for the release of his family overseas. Chinese State Security Bureau police frequently become closely involved with families and associates of Uyghurs overseas, targeting them for propaganda, harassment, or even jail, according to their relatives in the US.
Parhat, who gained U.S. political asylum 10 years ago and is now a U.S. permanent resident, said the calls began in 2004 with a Chinese-speaking State Security Bureau official in his hometown of Ghulja, who identified himself by his surname, Cheng.
After Parhat asked for a fluent Uyghur speaker, two other people called, identifying themselves as "Xue Ma" and as "Nurtay."
In one call recorded in the first half of 2004, Xue Ma tells Parhat: "I will start processing your wife and children's passports soon...Then you work for us." ("Radio Free Asia", January 5, 2005)
According to Alim Seytoff, in 2006, a group of the Chinese nationals surrounded the Washington home of the leading Uyghur dissident in America, Rebiya Kadeer, and began to photograph it. Her grandson was at home at that time and called his mother, who was at work. She rushed home and saw a group of the Chinese. She noted the license plate of their car and found out that it was rented by the Chinese Embassy. This is another method utilized by the KGB stations abroad. It is called as "verifying the home of the object of our interest."
The Chinese intelligence has so far refrained from the kind of open murders that their Russian colleagueshave carried out. Nevertheless, according to Alim Seytoff, an Uyghur activist was recently hurt by a car in a hit-and-run event in Fairfax, VA. It was turned out later that it was a stolen car and the driver was never caught, so the 'accident', while suspicious, remains unsolved.
In general, Russian authorities do not support the Uyighurs separatists and might be cooperating their Chinese colleagues on hunting them abroad. Russians have evicted the Uyghurs activists from Russia back to China, like all other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are doing.
According to a Russian expert, Roman Tomberg, "China is so eagerly working in SCO, because it wants to use it for controlling Uyghurs. The large Uyghur communities are living in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz, and so far the authorizes of those countries, which are also Turkic and conditionally Muslim, are eagerly tolerating China and restricting the Uyghur nationalism by all means." (Slon.ru 07.07.09)
Alim Seytoff shares this opinion. In his article, "SCO Exercises Aimed at Suppressing Uyghurs", he wrote the following: "Today, the SCO is evolving into an anti-Uyghur, anti-democratic, and even anti-West military alliance of authoritarian states. Both China and Russia are increasingly opposed to US military presence in Central Asia. Therefore, Peace Mission 2007 is intended to turn the SCO into a military and political alliance to repress Uyghur people's legitimate democratic and human-rights demands, to warn the local democratic forces never to dream of having any kind of "color revolutions" aimed at overthrowing the authoritarian states, and to counter a growing influence of the United States in the region." ("Asia Times", August 16, 2007)..
Konstantin Preobrazhensky is a former KGB agent who defected to the US in 2003 and received asylum here in 2006. He became one of the KGB's harshest critics. He is the author of seven books about the KGB and Japan. His latest book is about Russian intelligence activity in the US, KGB/FSB's New Trojan Horse: Americans of Russian Descent. Preobrazhensky serves as Senior Fellow for Gerard Group.
IntelAnalysis represents a summary of the deep research and analysis carried out by Gerard Group in support of national security initiatives in the public and private sectors. For more information about how Gerard Group's services can help your organization apply actionable intelligence to your strategic requirements, please visit our website at www.gerardgroup.com. You may also contact us directly at 978-270-7531 or by e-mail to support@gerardgroup.com
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