August 7, 2009

We recently wrote a series of articles on hotspots in Europe and Asia.

Our trusted sources in the field have sent responses to two of our most recent articles concerning the attack on the unarmed citizens of Ashraff and the economic desperation of the Taliban.

Attack on Asraff: Comments from the Field

Since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the refugee camp at Ashraff has been home to roughly 3,000 residents, who have been living under U.S. protection. Although there is still a US presence at the camp, its protective role came to an end when the Iraqis took control in January.

The civilians living in the camp are Iranian ex-patriots and members of an Iranian opposition group, known as the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), who have played a very big role in providing the U.S. with intelligence on Iran's nuclear program.

According to CBS, "The MEK have lived in Camp Ashraf—a quiet community featuring fountains and manicured gardens—for decades, providing intelligence on Iran. The Iranian government wants them expelled and accuses them of being involved in the recent unrest in Iran."

Last week, Iraqi police mounted a vicious attack on this camp of civilians. Although it has been impossible to verify the numbers, because the camp has been sealed off by the Iraqi government, it has estimated that at least 11 people were killed, hundreds more injured, and 30 arrested.

Our source, who is stationed at Camp Grizzly, which is located 60 kilometers north of Baghdad, wrote in an email: "Yes they [gave them Asraff]! All I can say in this email is we heard a LOT of gun fire when it happened, I was coming back from the gym and heard the yelling and gun fire, I knew something was up. We are still here on base, we had a couple striker units move in so the population [here] has grown to 800-900." F.O.B. Grizzly, Ashraf, Iraq

A colleague commented on the email: "The significance (in my opinion) is that F.O.B. Grizzly is within "shouting distance" from Ashraff and has (and had at the time of the attack) a resident population of USMC and two (2) Stryker units with total numbers nearing 1000 US combatants.… We had the capability to prevent what happened but not the POLITICAL will."

The use of police or military force against unarmed civilians is unconscionable. That we had forces on hand who were not allowed to stand up to protect them, is mystifying and deeply disturbing.

Taliban Desperate for Money: Comments from the Field

Last year's poppy crop from Afghanistan represented an estimated street value of $52 billion. The eradication of over 12,000 acres of poppy fields represented only 5% of the total area devoted to poppy cultivation, which is nearly 393,000 acres. In our July 21st article on the Taliban, I suggested that the destruction of all the poppy fields might go a long way towards the fall of the Taliban, as well as drying up the world's major source of heroin. Here is another perspective on the problem from our colleague in Afghanistan:

"I do think that the Taliban is hurting for funds - Remembering that drugs make up over 53% of Afghanistan's illicit GDP we have to realize that not all of the profit goes to the Taliban. Much of it is absorbed by narco-traffickers and organized crime elements.

"In addition, Opium is not producing the income that it once did; not because eradication was successful but because eradication was a miserable failure (Holbrook's analysis of the counter Narcotics effort in Afghanistan was dead on). US failure to eradicate the poppies has resulted in a huge oversupply and a serious reduction in price. Newsweek accurately portrays the situation in a recent article.

"Our (my group) efforts are not focused on the forced eradication but rather on Voluntary Government Led Eradication in conjunction with an eight pillared strategy involving Public Information, Alternative Livelihoods, Judicial Reform,Institution Building, Regional Cooperation, Government led Eradication / Elimination and lastly, Law Enforcement and Interdiction.

"Another important point to be made is that 'Nature abhors a vacuum.' The Taliban may be struggling here and suffering from a lack of funds but Al Qaeda is not. Their funding is 'world based' and not dependent on opium. They will quickly step in as the Taliban falls back."

These words of warning should not be ignored. Should the Taliban maintain its strength, it poses a threat to the rest of the world, not only through its huge poppy trade, but also because of its cells and religious centers around the world that pose local threats in every community where they exist. Should the Taliban fall, then Al Qaeda will surely fill the vacuum and reestablish their authority with speed and efficiency. Neither of these scenarios bodes well for the rest of the world.

Our strategists who are laying out America's new enhanced engagement in Afghanistan need to be mindful of this heightened threat. The implications—and the potential threats—are global.

The Importance of Information Sharing

We at Gerard Group aim to provide our readers with insight into the events that are continuing to erupt around the world and to connect the relevant dots in order to put them in context. The news we get from the media is frequently incomplete or skewed by political agendas which color the information. Truth, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. We are not without our opinions (something that must be quite clear to our regular readers), but our first priority is to fill in some of the information gaps, show the relevancies, and then to provide a thoughtful perspective on what it means to all of us.

We believe that information needs to be shared in order to be fully understood. It is only through collaboration in the analysis of this information that we can truly wrap our minds around both the broader implications and the barely perceptible subtleties of developing events.

Because of this, we encourage responses to our articles, and invite you to join in the discussion. Many of the responses that we receive are both enlightening and informative.

Thank you for participating in this exercise in free speech and collaborative learning.

In order to further this approach, we have recently enlarged the scope of our work to include a major conference at which the process of sharing information and collaboration in analysis will be the underlying theme. The conference - IntelNexus 2009 - will stress the importance of intelligence analysis and sharing by creating a forum in which such sharing will be at the core. The session speakers will be leaders in the field of intelligence analysis, law enforcement, security, and business. Every session will be set up in a round-table format, and each presentation will be designed to encourage lively discussion on the topic at hand.

We encourage you to join this experiment and lend your voice, your opinions, and your ideas to the discussion. You can be a part of the process of creating new paradigms for decision and policy making.

In order to ensure that this unusual format will be success, participation will be limited to the first 300 people who register. Sign up here. Find out more about the conference here.

Gerard Group is a provider of intelligence-led services and analysis to industry and government. Please visit our website at www.gerardgroup.com for more information about the company and the wide range of services that we provide.

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