June 21, 2009

FLASHPOINT: IRAN
Analysis: Iran at the Tipping Point
by Ilana Freedman

Iran has reached a point of no return. The increasingly violent demonstrations in the streets of Iran’s cities are growing larger and louder as Iranians continue to protest the results of a well-orchestrated, fraudulent national election. The outcome of the June 12th elections was determined long before the Iranian people went to the ballot boxes. Although the final results of the election were not supposed to be announced until Monday, June 15, Ahmadinejad preempted the announcement on the 13th, declaring himself the winner. This was despite the fact that the counting of nearly forty million votes was clearly impossible in such a short time.

Ahmadinejad gave an audacious performance at a press conference the following day, touting what he called the ‘real and free’ election process. Pandering to the West, he ignored the oppressive reality under which the Iranian people live.

"The elections belong to the people," he said, "and were conducted by the people. Forty million participated in them. The people have made their decision… The response of our people is very clear—those forty million who participated in the elections exist here and now. Those twenty million or so who voted for me exist here and now. At any given point in the future, they will repeat their heroic act. That is what the Iranian people is all about."

"Iran supports peace, justice, and brotherhood", he continued. "Don’t you worry about us. Freedom here is almost absolute. As proof of this, you see that people can say whatever they like. They are not afraid of persecution."

Well, the people are speaking now. And ‘freedoms’ that Ahmadinejad boasted of in his press conference have gone by the wayside. The wheels of oppression are now in full play to suppress all displays of dissent among the Iranian people. Persecution is clearly the reward that the government wants dissenters to reap.

The growing crescendo of the Iranian opposition makes it abundantly clear that forty million people were hardly unanimous in their choices for the future of Iran. The growing ferocity of the government’s response makes it equally clear that Iran is as far from a free society as it could possibly be.

The movement for change in Iran has a diverse base that includes university students, intellectuals, union leaders, reformist politicians and clerics, and other activists seeking change from the current repressive regime. The current demonstrations are a logical outgrowth of the underground movement that has been churning under the surface in Iran for a number of years. 60% of Iran’s population is under 30 and most of them are not only literate, but reasonably well educated. It is this demographic, supported by more experienced activists, that has formed the foundation for the current dissent.

In the election process that brought Ahmadinejad into power in 2005, allegations of fraud were rampant. This did not, however, impede the new president in his efforts to assume a global reputation as ‘leader’ of Iran. The fact that he was subject to the superior power of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei was largely ignored by world leaders, and Ahmadinejad has happily filled the role of figurehead to a gullible world.

Following the election last week, Ahmadinejad took center stage, taking time off following his infamous press conference, to fly to Russia for meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRIC group, which includes four large emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, where he said, "It is absolutely obvious that the age of empires has ended, and its revival will not take place."

Meanwhile, unrest over the latest election fraud has taken on a life of its own. The demonstrations began when supporters of Mir Hussein Mousavi, the principal opponent of Ahmadinejad, were outraged by the apparent fraud in the vote count. But since they began last week, the green ribbons, scarves, and banners that originally symbolized his campaign have taken on a broader meaning. Today they represent resistance against the country’s repressive government. This is not only a frustration over a fraudulent election, but a demonstration against the repression of freedom by the government, which includes the Supreme Council.

The seeds of revolution are now being sown in Iran. There was a small window of opportunity when the government might have been able to stop the demonstrations with a minimal show of force, but it was lost in the effort to sustain the charade of Iranian democracy. While Ahmadinejad was playing the role of benign leader of a free people, that appearance of benevolence and freedom of expression needed to be maintained for the world, even while the demonstrations were growing. He could not afford to show the despotic side of Iranian governance and his absence during the days following his ‘election’ displayed his confidence to the world that the demonstrations would peter out.

They did not. As the demonstrations continued to grow, Iran's Supreme Leader declared at Friday prayers on June 19, that the vote will stand and he publicly warned Mousavi to end the street protests or be held responsible for the "bloodshed and chaos" that would come if they do not stop. He warned protesters that there would be a strong response if they continue their massive demonstrations.

Despite the dire warning, the people continued to speak. The small window of opportunity for puppet and puppeteer was closed. The demonstrations went on, and the crackdown began in earnest.

But revolution in the twenty-first century is quite different from revolutions of years past. The phenomena of electronic communication and social networking have changed the rules, something that seems to have taken the Iranian government by surprise. Campaign supporters texted each other continuously to provide information and support for their activities. When the government shut down cell phone texting service two days before the elections, dissenters took to the Internet. After the elections were over, the people took to the streets to protest. They used their cell phones to photograph what was happening. When the international press was confined to their hotels and prevented from filming and reporting the demonstrations, the people used their cell phone cameras and handheld video cameras to record the protests and post them on the Internet. They were the only sources of photo commentary for the outside world. Heartbreaking films of demonstrators dead or dying on the street, of police assaulting peaceful demonstrators with clubs, tear gas, and bullets have been flying around the globe via Twitter and YouTube.

At this writing, demonstrators continue to mobilize and encourage each other through whatever communication channels are available. They cry out to the rest of the world for help through these same channels. That they are clearly appealing to the broader international community can be seen in their posters and banners, written both in Farsi and English. The Farsi is for the locals, the English is for the world. In this new era of instant electronic communication, the rules of engagement have changed.

Ahmadinejad has called on the United States and Britain to stop interfering in Iran's internal affairs, threatening to deprive them of a place in "the circle of friendship with the Iranian nation." Ahmadinejad took his lead (and perhaps his orders) from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had already warned the leaders of the US, UK, France and Germany not to meddle in Iran's domestic affairs. The Ayatollah stated that continued interference would lead Iran to respond "in other fields". If this was a veiled reference to the country's nuclear or advanced missile capabilities, it was ominous indeed.

The world's attention is now focused on Iran. The words of Ahmadinejad are far less important than the decisions of the Supreme Leader. As the demonstrations continue and the death toll mounts, Iran is at the tipping point. Whichever way it goes - backward into the darkness of violent repression or forward into a new era characterized by change - the future of Iran will be forever colored by the revolution now playing itself out throughout the country.

Our hearts and prayers are with the people.

Ilana Freedman is a senior intelligence analyst and CEO of Gerard Group International, Inc. Gerard Group is a provider to industry and government of intelligence-led services and analysis in business intelligence and homeland security. Please visit our website at www.gerardgroup.com for more information about the company and the wide range of services that we provide.

Send your comments to editor@gerardgroup.com

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