May 6, 2009

Flashpoint: Pakistan
By Ilana Freedman

Update: H1N1

Flashpoint: Pakistan

Situation Analysis:
Does the Rise of the Taliban Mean the Fall of Pakistan?
by Ilana Freedman

The Taliban are typically associated with Afghanistan. Too little attention has been given to their larger, expansionist goals, even as they continue to fight for power in their native country. Events in neighboring Pakistan involving Taliban incursions therefore have received only limited attention in the Western press until recently. In recent weeks, the Taliban's activities in Pakistan have been moving rapidly towards an explosive outcome that will be heard around the world.

Because the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly, this analysis can only capture what has happened to date, and will be followed by subsequent updates as the situation evolves. What can be said at the outset is that the situation is extremely fluid and dangerous, not only for Pakistan, but for India, its neighbor to the southeast, and for the rest of the world.

NOTE: Companies with facilities and personnel in India must be particularly alert and well-informed, because the situation may change quite suddenly, and the result may be catastrophic for Western interests.

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Taliban Expansion Since American forces began their offensive against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan after 9/11, the Taliban have been systematically moving fighters across their eastern border into Pakistan, where they have taken over the rugged mountainous region of the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). This has accomplished two things: 1) it has protected them from US attacks since they were hiding out within the territory of an American ally, and 2) it has enabled them to build a new power base, separate from Afghanistan. Over the last three years, they patiently established their support and intelligence network throughout the NWFP in preparation for a much bolder incursion. (See map above, last updated April 14. Click on map for a larger view.)

The movement of the Taliban from the protection of the mountains in the NWFP into the Swat District (click on map for a larger view), and from there into the Buner district, was among the most significant events in Pakistan since the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007. Their heavily armed incursion into Buner demonstrated their ability to move through the country at will, and served as a serious provocation against the Pakistani government. Although it was later reported that they had withdrawn their troops from Buner, they left behind local members to begin the process of instituting sharia law in the region. Residents also reported that many fighters were still present in the hills surrounding the region.

In Mingora, Swat's main town, the Taliban are already imposing their domination. Residents live in fear of armed groups of Taliban campaigning against the government. In one incident, four local men had their heads and mustaches shaved by Taliban members for the crime of listening to music in their car, according to AFP.

Despite the presence of thousands of Pakistani troops, the Taliban remain firmly in control of Swat. On March 12, 2009, sharia courts were officially open for business. In a region formerly known as a popular ski resort that catered to international tourism, policemen and residents have been beheaded in the streets, and men have been publicly lashed since the Taliban gained control. Some 400 private schools enrolling 40,000 girls have been shut and many destroyed, since education for girls is prohibited by the Taliban.

Over the last two years, government buildings have been blown up in the districts of Swat, Bajaur and Mohmand, as the Taliban began to impose shariah law and challenge the authority of the local government. Posters were put up throughout the town, ordering women not to go shopping, but to stay at home. The Taliban consider it 'obscene' for women to leave their homes, and forbid women from venturing out in public without being completely covered from head to toe, and in the company of an immediate male family member. The posters also warn shopkeepers that they will be dealt with severely if they are caught dealing with women shoppers.

In the town of Kohat, in the NWFP, the Taliban demolished 11 houses of the Sikh community after they refused to pay jizya, the tax demanded of non-Muslims for the right to continue living in a Muslim region.

In a program of local coercion and intimidation, the Taliban have spread terror and harassed the local population through dedicated FM channels, which they used to broadcast propaganda against the security forces and the government. Their programming generates fear and lowers the morale of the local residents. When the government seized and destroyed many of the stations that had been put in local houses, the Taliban began using mobile stations to threaten tribesmen. They promised dire consequences against anyone who helped the government forces against the Taliban. Although the Pakistani government says it will jam the stations which they cannot find to destroy, the Taliban have proven to be flexible, resilient, and resourceful. This particular cat and mouse contest has yet to be won.

The steady erosion of Pakistani control in the regions that the Taliban have taken over is ominous. As they move closer to Peshawar and Islamabad, the threat to the secular Pakistani government becomes more ominous. While the Pakistani Army may be hoping to crush the Taliban in the NWFP, the absence of political will on the part of the government may lead to its ultimate failure.

A fragile (and now failed) 'peace' agreement between the government and the Taliban is a prime example of how the government is either unable or unwilling to understand or cope with the dimensions of the current conflict.

In a recent example of blatant disregard for the will of the people, and in an effort to halt the fighting in Swat, the government agreed to abolish all laws against sharia and allow Islamic law in the region. In exchange, the Taliban fighters 'agreed' to lay down their arms. The agreement, the Nizam-i-Adl regulation, effectively ceded judicial control of a part of Pakistan to a band of terrorists who have been waging a savage war against the state and the local population. To appease an uncompromising enemy, this was done despite the fact that under Pakistani law, it is unconstitutional to cede national territory as the government has done.

Within days, the agreement broke down when a soldier was killed in an ambush, two local officials were beheaded, and armed Taliban fighters began patrolling Mingora, Swat's main town. It should come as no shock that terrorists are not likely to keep agreements with governments they intend to overthrow. But the Pakistani government was unprepared for the outcome.

On May 5th, Pakistani news source Dawn.com reported that “eleven people, including two security personnel, a police sub-inspector, and eight civilians were killed and several others injured as bullets rattled through parts of district headquarters Mingora… Residents said hundreds of militants have taken positions on rooftops and were patrolling streets and laying mines in Mingora city. They have surrounded scores of security personnel and government functionaries in the government buildings.”

There is also evidence that the local police have actually been complicit in the successful arrival of the Taliban into Pakistani villages. According to one report filed with the Pakistani newspaper, The International News, and in contradiction to many other reports, the majority of Taliban who have been responsible for the attacks are Afghan, not Pakistani.

A Pakistani resident of Buner, who had escaped the approaching Taliban by foot over the mountains during the Taliban incursion into his village in late April, was interviewed for the newspaper. He said, “For God sake, why don't you people listen to our cries as we have been invaded by the Afghan Tajiks!… I can swear on Holy Quran that those who have captured our village are Afghan nationals. You people sitting in Islamabad cannot imagine what sort of hell they have unleashed on us after advancing from Swat to our areas,” he said, sobbing.

He told the interviewer that the invaders had wantonly destroyed homes and businesses as they advanced. When the people of Buner heard about the approach of the Taliban from Swat, they had formed a resistance group to fight the invaders, but, according to the man, “the local police and law enforcement agencies facilitated them to capture the area.”

While the government has not given up the fight, and now prepares a well-publicized military offensive against the Taliban in the Swat valley, they are arguably ill-equipped to fight these asymmetrical battles. The willingness of the Taliban to die in combat and their legendary cruelty to those they view as their enemies generates fear and lowers the Pakistani military morale. In the northernmost section of the NWFP, in the town of Kalam, the entire police force recently abandoned their station. They felt that they are ill-equipped to handle a large scale attack by the Taliban, so they left the population defenseless against it.

On Monday, May 4, the Taliban killed five security officials in a suicide attack in Khyber and one policeman in a shooting in Hangu. Five soldiers and 10 Taliban fighters were killed during clashes in Buner, and one soldier was killed in Shangla. The Taliban vowed to fight to the death and claimed that the attacks were in retaliation for military operations in the region.

The western provinces are under siege and the central government seems to be unable to deal effectively with the current situation.

The implications of the Taliban incursions

Humanitarian Concerns International humanitarian and Pakistani officials have stated that up to one million people have already been displaced in northwestern Pakistan, and as many as 500,000 people may still evacuate the area. As the Taliban persists in pushing into Pakistan and imposing sharia law against the will of the people, Pakistanis will continue to flee from the northern region of Swat. As of this writing, the Pakistani army is preparing a military operation against the Taliban, and thousands of residents were reported fleeing the region.

Moreover, a large portion of the community—the female population—is marginalized in areas under Taliban control. The huge culture shock and accompanying demoralization of the people will result in further deterioration of humanitarian conditions.

Partnering in Terror Today, the Taliban, supported by al Qaeda, is at the forefront of anti-Pakistan attacks. They are also supported by several other al Qaeda feeder groups: Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (an al Qaeda ally and militant wing of the anti-Shia Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), which serves as a Trojan Horse for Al Qaeda to carry out operations in areas where Al Qaeda faces difficulty in operating directly; this was a role formerly played by Laskar-e-Taiba (LET), which trained the terrorists who carried out the Mumbai massacre; and Jais-e-Mohammad, allied to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (Students' Movement of Pakistan), the primary Taliban umbrella group in Pakistan. These forces have been responsible for attacks against Pakistan in Lahore, Islamabad, Chakwal, Multan, and Karachi. According to our sources, both the LET and the LEJ are members of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders (Christians) and the Jewish People.

Nuclear Concerns While the West does not know for certain the location of all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities, several sites are known to be near Islamabad. Among these is the Kahuta facility, east of Islamabad, which is the hub of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. While the Pakistan government continues to assure the world that their nuclear arsenal is safe, a $100 million security initiative, begun under President George W Bush, was never completed. If the Taliban are able to compromise existing nuclear security and gain possession of a nuclear capability, then the world will face a challenge unlike anything it has faced before. US National Security Advisor James Jones told the BBC that the Pakistan's nuclear weapons in Taliban hands represented “the very, very worst case scenario.”

ANALYSIS

In 2007, a Gerard Group colleague long familiar with the region suggested that the US pay attention to what was happening in Dir, a large district which lies along Pakistan's northwest border with Afghanistan. Our suggestions to people in high places bore little fruit. But it was here the Taliban built their powerful hub, from which their attacks against Pakistan were launched.

Once the heavily armed Taliban units began moving from Dir into the heart of the province, on the road to Islamabad, it became clear that our colleague's conclusions were correct. The Taliban had built a powerful base in DIR, from which, because it shares a large border with Afghanistan, Taliban units can now move about freely within the NWFP, and across the borders into Afghanistan and even certain areas in the Russian Islamic Republics.

Since first learning about the Taliban presence in Dir, we have been watching with growing alarm how the Taliban has been strengthening itself and spreading its influence throughout the Northwest Frontier Province. Little by little, they have been positioning themselves to spread across the rest of Pakistan, imposing a radical Islamist agenda on the people of Pakistan. Today, the Taliban already commands areas beyond the MWFP and are poised to move south to Peshawar and Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, in a bid to take over the civilian-led government, and create a new Islamic state, based on sharia law.

The current regime is politically and militarily weak, putting the government and its military forces at a great disadvantage. The military continues to fight an unconventional war with conventional tactics, and without the necessary training for asymmetrical warfare. They allow themselves to be intimidated by Taliban threats, at times stopping and even retreating in the face of Taliban resistance.

It is clear that the Taliban must be stopped before it progresses further. But that will take ingenuity, courage, and stamina - and the will to win on the battlefield. It is not clear that the government has any of those qualifications any more.

If the Taliban can successfully take over Islamabad, they are then likely to spread their campaign south, taking over the Kahuta nuclear facility, and moving on to Lahore and across the border into India. They will no doubt receive support from Iran, who, despite religious differences (Iran is Shia while the Taliban are Sunni) may well choose to use them as another front against the West and in support of their expansionist goals throughout the region. Iran has a nuclear appetite of its own, so support for this initiative could be easily justified.

The fear of compromising Pakistan's nuclear security should not be underestimated. Pakistan is close to becoming a failed state. Any miscalculation will cost the free world dearly. As President Obama prepares to meet with Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari later this week, the stakes could not be higher.

LATE BREAKING BULLETIN: According to breaking news, the military operation planned by Pakistan in Swat will commence as soon as the entire civilian population in the targeted areas can be evacuated and shifted to camps in Peshawar, Mardan and Durgai. According to the latest reports, this must happen prior to a decisive storming by the Army, in order to avoid 'collateral damage'. The plan is to flush out the enemy after the departure of the civilian population. Any civilian appearing in the area would be considered “enemy.” The army anticipates that the operation will be completed within a few weeks.

The government still maintains that the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation (imposition of sharia law in the territory) will be upheld in the Swat area, and religious courts would also be established, “as soon as peace and normalcy returns to the valley.”

EDITOR'S NOTE: The international disclosures of military tactics does not bode well for the success of this operation, or for the future of Pakistan. Official policy seems fraught with duplicity, indecision, and lack of will to succeed. America needs to consider the consequences of Pakistan's failure to contain the Taliban. Should the Taliban overcome the military and spread its control towards Islamabad, the cascading consequences will create critical strategic challenges for India, Afghanistan, and the West.

UPDATE: H1N1 FLU

New Vaccine Replikins Ltd. has announced the development of a vaccine based on the same Replikins peptide technology which provided the surprise advance warning one year ago that the current H1N1 outbreak/pandemic was on its way. No confirming information was available at the time of this report. WHO, CDC and others have stated that conventionally developed H1N1 vaccines will not be ready for many months.

Texas Woman Dies The Texas Department of State Health has confirmed the first death of a US resident with swine flu earlier this week. Few details have been released, but officials say the woman, who was in her 30s, was a resident of Cameron County, near the U.S.-Mexico border. She was reported to have had other, chronic health issues.

Global Tally WHO announced that the total number of confirmed cases globally is now 1,490 at 14:30 EDT on May 5, 2009. As reported earlier, it is suspected that the incidence of infection if considerably higher because of widespread under-reporting.

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