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Update: A(H1N1) Flu
Last update Thursday, May 7, 2009 1:41 PM EDT
New Vaccine Replikins Ltd. has announced the development of a vaccine based on the same Replikins peptide technology which provided the surprise advance warning one year ago that the current H1N1 outbreak/pandemic was on its way. No confirming information was available at the time of this report. WHO, CDC and others have stated that conventionally developed H1N1 vaccines will not be ready for many months.
Texas Woman Dies The Texas Department of State Health has confirmed the first death of a US resident with swine flu earlier this week. Few details have been released, but officials say the woman, who was in her 30s, was a resident of Cameron County, near the U.S.-Mexico border. She was reported to have had other, chronic health issues.
Global Tally WHO announced that the total number of confirmed cases globally is now 1,490 at 14:30 EDT on May 5, 2009. As reported earlier, it is suspected that the incidence of infection if considerably higher because of widespread under-reporting.
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Understanding the Situation Flus are viruses. According to an article in the Washington Post yesterday, “Influenza is a simple virus, with just eight genes, but it makes poor copies of itself, leading to constant mutation. Most of those mutations are dead ends, but, given enough chances, the virus can become more infectious or more lethal.” And that is the problem. As the flu continues to gain footholds around the world, it is clear that this is a flu that spreads easily from one person to another. And while the possibility of it mutating into something considerably more virulent seems quite real, even the experts can only guess at this point. This flu is one that we simply do not clearly understand yet, and that as it continues to spread we can only guess what course it will take. Therefore, we must continue to take seriously the warning from WHO, whose Alert Level remains at 5 (widespread human infection), and all the precautions that we have discussed before (see below), which should be practiced in earnest in order to help prevent unnecessary exposure to the disease. As long as A(H1N1) continues to be mild and early treatment is available, we can be reasonably assured that this flu will be no worse than a normal seasonal flu. It can be reasonably assumed that over the next few weeks, we will see a spike in the numbers as people who were recently exposed begin to show symptoms, and these will hopefully remain mild. Only in the coming weeks and months, as the researchers continue to do their work and the virus continues to run its course, will we begin to know how this flu will spread and, possibly, change. Until we know with certainty that this virus will not become something more virulent, we must continue to exercise reasonable caution and common sense in order to keep ourselves healthy and safe. Why This Flu Will Not Repeat 1918 There are several reasons why comparing A(H1N1) to the 1918 pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is misleading. In 1918, anti-viral treatment was virtually non-existent. People who became infected with the virus had no recourse to modern treatments that we take for granted today. People who contracted the virus had neither the medical knowledge nor the tools to prevent it from developing serious complications, such as bacterial infections in the respiratory tract and lungs, which could prove fatal if not treated with antibiotics. Unfortunately, Sulfanomide, the first antimicrobial drug, was not developed for human use until 1932. Penicillin was only discovered in 1928, and was not used clinically on human patients until 1941. In short, the cures we have today were simply not available during the 1918 pandemic. In 2009, we have Tamiflu and Relenza, as well as a host of other medicines that treat symptoms and limit the possibility that a mild flu will develop into fatal illness. If complications should occur, we also have a host of antibiotic drugs to address them. According to the CDC, “On May 3, CDC is scheduled to complete deployment of 25 percent of the supplies in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) to all states in the continental United States. These supplies and medicines will help states and U.S. territories respond to the outbreak. In addition, the Federal Government and manufacturers have begun the process of developing a vaccine against the novel H1N1 flu virus.” That said, however, we spread our germs far more easily today, given the speed and convenience of international travel. And in many parts of the world, medical treatment is still difficult or impossible to get. |
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It is comforting to know that conditions today have made a pandemic such as occurred in 1918 less likely. In order to better understand how you can protect yourself, your family, and your community, please read on, through our earlier postings. We have listed some moderate precautions that you can take to help you stay safe, and provide you with more information about this flu as we receive it.
Visit our site often so you can follow the live feeds and continue to receive up-to-the-minute news on the progress of this flu.
What You Need to Know
A(H1N1) seems to be a relatively mild illness, characterized by fever, headache, muscle aches, fatigue, and sometimes nausea and vomiting. Left untreated, however, this virus can lead to serious complications, such as pneumonia, and even death. Although the number of cases worldwide is still small, it is expected to spike dramatically in every country where people have been exposed.
There is also the fear that, as frequently happens with flu viruses, this one will run its current course, disappear for a period of months, and then return in flu season, in a much more virulent form.
It is therefore important to take the current emergency seriously and recognize that the best way to keep the spreading of the virus to a minimum is to limit the possibility of exposure in every way possible. Because the virus can take several weeks to incubate, and is contagious up to three days prior to presenting symptoms, it is difficult to control exposure.
The virus is typically spread when a person comes in contact with respiratory droplets from an infected person. The droplets may be left on a hard surface like a desk or transmitted through the air. When one comes in contact with the virus, then touches his own eyes, mouth, or nose before thoroughly washing his hands, the virus can be transferred to the new host. A hand shake, a hug, a sneeze or cough, is all it takes to pass on the virus from one person to another. When many people congregate in a single venue, the opportunity to pass the virus from one to another is greatly enhanced.
We therefore recommend avoiding, wherever possible, large events where many people gather in close proximity. These include conferences, amusement parks, sporting events, or theaters. It is impossible to know who has been exposed to the virus, who might be contagious, and which contact may lead to infection.
This warning also applies to unnecessary travel. We suspect that one of the fastest ways to spread the virus is during travel. The air in an airplane, for example, is re-circulated many times during the course of a flight. One infected passenger, therefore, can theoretically infect all the other passengers. For this reason there is special concern about traveling to areas where the virus has been confirmed, or with other travelers who may have already been exposed.
A(H1N1) is a new virus, never seen before. It may have characteristics that we cannot anticipate, and we must therefore treat the possibility of a coming pandemic with respect.
We take the CDC and WHO warnings very seriously and we urge our readers to do the same.
What You Need to Do
PLAN, DON’T PANIC.
1. Practice good hygiene, including frequent and thorough hand washing, frequent use of hand-sanitizer when soap and water are unavailable, avoid unnecessary contact with strangers, avoid crowds and unnecessary travel.
2. Be familiar with the symptoms: fever, headache, muscle aches, fatigue, and sometimes nausea and vomiting. If you feel that you are coming down with some or all of them, stay at home and call your doctor. Do not risk infecting others until you are no longer contagious.
3. Be prepared to have to stay at home for an extended period of time, if either you or a member of your family becomes ill with A(H1N1). Remember that you cannot diagnose this virus yourself, or purchase the medication on your own. Your doctor or local medical facility can test you, and only they can prescribe Tamiflu or Relenza. If you are tested, it may take two or three days for the results to come back. Until the diagnosis is clear, you should stay home, drink plenty of fluids, and rest.
4. In the event that A(H1N1) is determined to have reached pandemic proportions, you and your entire family may be required to stay at home for an indeterminate period. We therefore recommend that you have enough food, water, and necessary medications (as well as supplies for pets) to last you for about three weeks. This should be prepared now since it is currently impossible to know how quickly this virus will continue to spread.
5. If you have symptoms that are mild, DO stay home and treat yourself as you would a seasonal flu. Only go to the doctor or medical facility if your symptoms become severe. The worst possibility for a physician or a hospital is to be overrun by patients with minor illnesses during a blossoming epidemic, when a large number of seriously ill patients suddenly require immediate medical attention.
6. Generally, don’t be alarmed, keep calm. Prepare yourself and your family for whatever may occur. You can get the latest information about the progress of A(H1N1) at our website www.gerardgroup.com. Our multiple news feeds are continually updated to provide you with the latest news.
Timeline
A complete timeline dating from the very beginning of this outbreak of swine flu is available here.
Additional on-line resources:
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/general_info.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html
http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_4488.html
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