August 15, 2008

Breaking NewsEvents in Georgia Escalate Even as Rice Steps in to Mediate

This morning Gerard Group received a comprehensive report from its multiple sources on the ground in Georgia. The report has brought into high relief the massive force that Russia has brought against this sovereign nation of Georgia, and the reality that Georgia now stands at the brink of destruction.

The attack last week against Georgia by the Russian military was not a spontaneous response to Georgian activities in South Ossetia. According to our sources on the ground in Tblisi, thousands of Russian tanks have been massing on the Russian border with Georgia since the last days of June. They were simply waiting for an excuse to cross the border, and they were armed for conquest.

Their first attack came by air on Friday, August 8, delivered by two SU-44s, whose first bomb hit a cafeteria in the Vasiani Air Force Base, near Georgia's capital, Tblisi. According to our sources, the base was slated to become a part of the system of US military bases providing support in Central Asia, once Georgia joined NATO.

By Saturday, Russian tanks were pouring into the country and only five days later, President Mikheil Saakashvili reported that Russia currently occupies one-third of his country. He accused the world of standing by and watching the murder of his country on live television.

Today, Georgian dreams are in disarray. Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti has been destroyed, according to our sources. The city of Gori has also been destroyed, and the destruction has been followed by reports of looting and atrocities by irregular soldiers. Tskhinvali, the capital of the Georgian Province of South Ossetia, has also met with heavy damage. Georgia's newest military base, built to NATO specifications to prepare the country for NATO membership, has been totally destroyed

Russia is also reported to have dropped cluster bombs in Ossetia. During this past week, there were over 100 jets in the airspace over Georgia, 'matched' against Georgia's meager air force of 7 military planes. For the time being, Tblisi has been spared, although much of the infrastructure around Tblisi has been destroyed. The Russians are currently content to keep their line of tanks about 15 miles outside of Tblisi.

Our source reports that a deal was struck under Russian threat that the capital would be spared if Saakashvili would keep his troops from blowing up the strategic Roki tunnel that runs through the Caucasus Mountain range which marks the border between Russia and Georgia. The Russians are using this tunnel to supply troops and provide ground access to Georgia.

The conflict began ten days ago when Saakashvili sent four brigades of poorly trained troops into South Ossetia on an ill-advised offensive to seize control over the breakaway region, which Georgia claims as part of its territory. Russia was prepared to respond quickly. Their massive over-reaction to Georgia's poor attempt to secure South Ossetia has demonstrated to the world that Russia's dreams of world domination go far beyond the country to its south.

Putin's quest for international power extends beyond political aspirations. Dominance in oil and gas will be greatly enhanced by Russia's occupation of Georgia, which lies in a corridor between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, that commands distribution pipelines from Azerbaijan, which controls vast oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea.

It exports these resources to Georgia, Turkey, and Europe through three pipelines - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan via Georgia to Turkey (which carried 1.2 million barrels of oil to Turkey a day); Baku-Novorossiisk, which links the Azeri capital with the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk; and Baku-Supsa to Georgia. Acquisition of these lines would be a major coup for the Russians.

But as of August 9, two days after the start of the conflict, Azerbaijan halted all of its oil export to Georgia via Baku.

No less important to Putin, is the message that Russian power is now emerging, and that the weakness of the West will have to give way to the dominance of a powerful, new Russia.

The mortifications associated with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 will be redeemed by an emerging Russia as a new global force with which to be reckoned. The Russian Bear is determined to show its claws, and demonstrate to the whole world that the "Paper Tiger" they know as the United States, cannot withstand the power of its military and political forces.

Not insignificantly, there are rumors that Russian Special Forces have been inserted into Georgia with a target hit list. This strategy is not unknown to those who are familiar with Soviet history and have been following Russia's descent from quasi-democratic process and return to the basic principles of Soviet "might over right".

It should surprise no one that only last Monday, August 4, Russia's deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn assured Georgia that, "We are not planning any offensive." His duplicity is reminiscent of old Soviet policies of disinformation and lies.

Now the world has finally gotten involved. Condoleeza Rice arrived in Tblisi today, for the purpose of, in the words of President Bush, "conferring with President Saakashvili and expressing America's wholehearted support for Georgia's democracy".

She came talking softly and carrying a big stick. But the target of her political thrust was Georgia, not Russia, whose overwhelming military presence in Georgia today continues to pose a monstrous threat to the Georgian people.

Following her arrival, Saakashvili has signed a cease fire, for the second time this week. He signed it under extreme pressure from Rice. The Russians blatantly ignored the first cease fire, and, although Rice has called for total Russian withdrawal, we do not anticipate their cooperation this time either.

America seems determined to replace the big stick with appeasement to every country that raises its voice against us, either directly or indirectly. This has led us to a situation where America is perceived as weak, unable or unwilling to defend its allies. It renders us helpless in the face of agression against our friends and allies.

© Gerard Group International, Inc. 2008

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