February 20, 2008

BREAKING NEWS ANALYSIS: Warning to the West: The Implications of Mugniyah's Assassination
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

BREAKING NEWS ANALYSIS: Kosovo's Independence: Harbinger of War?
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

EDITOR'S COLUMN: Death of 'Mr. Terror'; Ending a Reign of Brutality
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

GUEST COLUMNIST: US Failure to Lead, Creates Global Instability
By Clare Lopez

SHORT TAKE: What's in a Name? — The Term Islamofascism
By Scott W. Winchell, SVP, Gerard Group International

BREAKING NEWS ANALYSIS Warning to the West: The Implications of Mugniyah's Assassination
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

The assassination of Imad Mugniyah, Hezbollah's second in command and strategist for global operations, has created a buzz in the Islamic world that has caught our attention. Not only has it brought on a rash of threats and sabre rattling, but has significantly raised concerns about possible terrorist attacks against the West.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian spiritual leader, in his condolences to Hezbollah said: "The holy blood of martyrs such as Imad Mugniyah will produce hundreds of martyrs like him and will multiply the resistance to oppression and exploitation."

Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hezbollah, said: "Despite the fact that the Lebanese nation has lost a great commander - there are hundreds of thousands, even millions more Haj Radwan's (Mugniyah's nickname) who possess the same courage and resolve to join the struggle.

Hezbollah has threatened retaliation, not only against Israel, whom they blame for the assassination, but the US, whom they link with Israel, as either complicit or guilty by association. It hardly matters which one.

According to our understanding of the structure of Hezbollah and its top down organization, US cells were receiving their orders directly from Nasrallah's closest advisers. As mastermind and chief strategist for all overseas operations, as well as head of Hezbollah military operations (appointed by Iran after the last Lebanon war), Mugniyah shared his plans with no one and his death therefore has left a tremendous void at the top of the Hezbollah food chain.

The current escalated chatter indicates that retaliation in the US is inevitable and may come very soon, as Hezbollah has active cells all over the US, with concentrations in Michigan (headquarters in Dearborn and Detroit); Chicago; Irving, Texas; Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Costa Mesa, California; North Carolina; Florida: Georgia; etc. They are angry, they are without direction from Lebanon, and they are planning revenge.

There is now considerable speculation about the massive explosion at the Alon USA oil refinery in Big Spring, TX. This is an Israeli-owned company, which makes it a target. The effect that the explosion will have on oil producers and oil and gas prices may be significant. All incoming crude oil pipelines from Midland and Houston have been shut down. If this was a terrorist attack, as we suspect, then this is a sign of things to come. Looking at the photos of the plume and then the fire afterward would suggest that this was not an accidental event.

Revenge for the killing of Mugniyah is likely to strike soon and may occur simultaneously or cascaded in various places throughout the country. Our latest intel indicates that this is likely and may begin very soon. The FBI has put out an alert to all law enforcment agencies and for Israeli and Jewish owned properties. To assume that only these will be targeted runs counter to our best intel and the explicit threats from Hezbollah.

BREAKING NEWS ANALYSIS Kosovo's Independence: Harbinger of War?
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

Sunday's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia by Kosovo is likely to have serious consequences, not only in the Balkans, but around the world.

Serbia called the declaration illegal and Russia denounced it. The United States, however, was among the first to recognize Kosovo as an independent nation, complicating a growing breach with Russia, China and some EU members, who are vehemently opposed to letting Kosovo break away from Serbia.

Minimally, this event threatens to touch off a new conflict in the Balkans. Riots have already broken out in Belgrade. According to our source in Belgrade, "Serbia is about to go up in flames" as thousands of ethnic Albanians, Muslims who represent 90% of Kosovo's two million people, have stated their claim on the new state. According to our source, a systematic ethnic cleansing of Kosovo's remaining Christian inhabitants has been going on for several years and will now likely escalate.

Since we have been supporting 'democracy' in Kosovo, and have ignored the strong Albanian Islamic influence in political affairs there, we have opened the gates to a new Islamic state, complete with terrorist training camps on the ground and a global network through which to funnel their graduates.

This begins a trail that leads to (but does not end in) New York City, where the 'Albanian Mafia' has taken over much of the drug and organized crime trade. The combination of the legitimization of their terrorist activities in Kosovo, their links to the US, and the fall of Serbia (partly self-inflicted) may spell a new era of unrest and confusion that will mean danger for US interests everywhere.

To illustrate the ripple effect that has already begun to appear, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, said today, "Kosovo is not better than us. We deserve independence even before Kosovo, and we ask for the backing of the United States and the European Union for our independence." He supported the position that Palestinians should unilaterally declare their own independence.

Kosovo's move has opened a Pandora's Box that is likely to release forces that will spin out of control very rapidly. Separatist movements in many parts of the world can take heart from Kosovo's move and sow the seeds of chaos in a world that is already reeling from the effects of Islamic terror.

EDITOR'S COLUMN: Death of 'Mr. Terror'; Ending a Reign of Brutality
By Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

The shadowy figure of Imad Mugniyah was, until last week, largely unknown among the general public in the West. To those who track the terrorists, however, he had a well-deserved reputation as one of the most vicious terrorists in the world.

He had murdered and maimed the innocent in the name of Allah for over twenty-five years and had left a trail of blood around the world. He was wanted by 42 nations whose citizens had been victims of his acts of terror. His assassination in Damascus on February 12 put to rest the search for one of the most secretive, elusive, and brutal terrorists in modern history.

In a region that has been plagued by violence over decades of terrorism, assassinations, and war, the death of the man Israel called 'Mr. Terror' will not be just one more in the ongoing cycle of violence. Unlike similar assassinations in recent years, Mugniyah's death will not be buried in the long and turbulent history of the greater Middle East.

His high rank in Hezbollah and his status as an Islamic hero, who defied the powers of the world, makes this assassination a cause célèbre and an excuse for revenge that is likely to be a tipping point that will be felt around the world.

Who was Imad Mugniyah?

Mugniyah's career of terror began in 1983 when it was said that he masterminded the first modern suicide attacks against the American Embassy (killing 60 people), and the US Marine barracks in Beirut (killing 241 American servicemen). Mugniyah was behind the string of kidnappings, torture, and murders of Americans serving in Lebanon during the 1980s.

He was responsible for the brutal beating, torture and murder of 23 year old Robert Dean Stethem, a US Navy diver and one of the hostages aboard hijacked TWA 847 in Athens, Greece. In 1992 and 1994, he planned two deadly bombings in Argentina which left 124 people dead.

Prior to 9/11, he was considered the most dangerous terrorist in the world and was responsible for killing more Americans than any other individual. The FBI placed him at the top of their Most Wanted Terrorists list, and the Department of State offered a $5 million reward for information leading directly to his apprehension or conviction.

Mugniyah was responsible for Hezbollah's overseas operations, second only to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah within the tightly controlled organization. Working closely with Iran, Mugniyah was the architect of a global intelligence network for Hezbollah which it claims Western intelligence has been unable to infiltrate. In January 2006, Mugniyah was sighted in Damascus alongside Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, at a meeting with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

This led to speculation about his elevated relationship with Iran, and his growing role in global jihad. After the Lebanon war seven months later, Teheran reportedly appointed Mugniyah to replace Nasrallah as Hezbollah's Chief of Military Operations.

Mugniyah was a pathologically secretive man. Although he was responsible for a vast and complex intelligence network, and his plans for the future were apparently far-reaching, he did not share them with even his closest colleagues.

His death therefore leaves a vacuum in the strategic aspirations of Iranian expansion and Hezbollah's quest for control in Lebanon, and the success of their stated goal to destroy the State of Israel. The great strategist behind their expansionist plans died without leaving behind his blueprints for the future.

What this means to the US and Israel

Mugniyah's assassination disrupted these plans. The confusion that characterizes the aftermath is quite typical for the Middle East, but unlike other assassinations and bombings, this one will have long-lasting implications. Even before the dust had settled, using their tried and true method that we call "first story out wins", Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah all announced that the killing had been carried out by Israel and the United States.

In a diatribe delivered at Mugniyah's funeral, Hezbollah's Nasrallah railed, "The blood of our slain commander will lead to Israel's demise." He threatened open war with Israel as a result of the killing. Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki joined the condemnation when he expressed his hope that this year will be "the year of failure for America and Israel."

However, other reports from the Muslim world suggested that more than one possible answer exists to the question, "who killed Mugniyah?" Challenging the knee-jerk reaction of blaming Israel, the Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Watan, reported that Mugniyah was in Damascus to meet with Hezbollah leaders to plan a massive attack against other Arab states, implying that others also had motive to see him dead.

Another Kuwaiti newspaper suggested that he was killed by Syrian intelligence. In the meantime, several Palestinians have been arrested in Syria in connection with the bombing, leading to a third possible theory.

The repercussions of the attack will be felt for a long time. By accusing Israel and the US of colluding in this killing, Iran now has a rationale for retaliation for military action against Israel, and support for terrorist actions against the United States. Hamas also joined in the call for revenge.

Hamas spokesman in Gaza, Samir Abu Zuhri, condemned the crime and said, "we must emphasize the Muslim nation must rise up to confront the Zionist devil which is backed by the Americans.

Revenge attacks against Jewish and American interests are inevitable, although they may take many forms and occur unpredictably anywhere in the world. In the Middle East, Syria and Lebanon will regroup, as will Iran, and its surrogate, Hezbollah. Mugniyah's replacement has been chosen although his identity has been kept secret.

However, the loss of their mastermind will not be forgotten and will certainly trigger reprisals. Internationally, this may include the kidnapping of prominent Americans and Israelis, attacks against American and Jewish interests at home and abroad, and the opening of an all-out war with Israel.

At home we are also highly vulnerable. The FBI has warned Jewish organizations and Jewish-owned establishments to be on alert for possible attacks in revenge for Mugniyah's assassination. We cannot take comfort, though, in the thought that this is only about Israel and doesn't affect us here in America.

We need only to remember a speech given by Nasrallah on Hezbollah's al Manar television in 2002, with a message that continues to reverberate throughout the ranks of Hezbollah and its supporters. His message is unambiguous:

"Let the entire world hear me. Our hostility to the Great Satan is absolute. I conclude my speech with the slogan that will continue to reverberate on all occasions so that nobody will think that we have weakened. Regardless of how the world has changed after 11 September, Death to America will remain our reverberating and powerful slogan: Death to America."

We ignore his threat at our great peril.

GUEST COLUMNIST: US Failure to Lead, Creates Global Instability
By Clare Lopez

The early years of the George W. Bush administration were marked by a strong sense of purpose, dedication to the "Bush Doctrine" for democratic change in the Middle East, and the soaring rhetoric of a president who understood that American leadership anchored global stability. In the wake of 9/11, Islamist jihadis, friends, allies, and adversaries alike were all put on notice: the United States was not ready for dhimmitude, not by a long shot.

"No Surrender" was more than a book title. The most dangerous regimes on earth would not be permitted to acquire the world's most dangerous weapons -- not on President Bush's watch. The State of Israel's identity as a Jewish state and outpost of democracy in the Middle East had a powerful defender. Freedom was on the march for oppressed Iranians, restless Egyptians, brutalized Iraqis, and all the peoples of the Arab and Muslim world.

Recently, however, the ability and willingness of the U.S. to lead the struggle for liberal democracy, rule of law, and values of Western civilization seem to be slipping badly. The resulting sense of uncertainty is leading to a dangerous instability in world affairs that invites challenge from opportunistic rogues, confusion from friends and allies, and appeasement and retreat from the weak.

Only a reassertion of firm American leadership can end this dangerous interlude; the alternative is a continued slide into chaos that will only further erode the U.S.'s ability to defend, let alone pursue, national and international security objectives.

Without a doubt, the most serious challenge facing the U.S. today is Iran's geostrategic and ideological expansionism. While the 2006-7 period heralded increasing cohesion among U.S., European, and other world powers on the issue of checking Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions to the point that a military strike against its nuclear facilities looked likely, once the U.S. Intelligence Community issued its deeply flawed and blatantly politicized Key Judgments of the Iran National Intelligence Estimate in early December 2007, any such unity evaporated.

In rapid succession, Iran issued a contemptuous refusal to abide by previous United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding it halt nuclear enrichment. Installation of additional thousands of gas centrifuges at Natanz proceeded apace, and Russia moved swiftly to provide long-promised enriched uranium fuel for Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran thus achieved both the preservation and advancement of its nuclear enrichment program and the Russian nuclear fuel with absolutely zero concessions or compliance with international obligations.

Iran's genocidal threats against Israel proliferated, even as Hamas launched a hail of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel and Syria helped Hezbollah amass huge shipments of Iranian armaments under the comatose noses of UNIFIL, the U.N. force posted to Lebanon for the express purpose of preventing such weaponization. U.S. boosterism for Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas never flagged, even as his Fatah party's terrorist militia, the al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, continued to receive Iranian funding and weapons, making a mockery of administration peace efforts.

In Iraq, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Ministry of Intelligence and Security support to terror cells surged again. According to General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, attacks against American troops by Iranian-supplied Explosively Formed Projectiles accelerated markedly in early January.

If London's Sunday Times is right, the IRGC apparently has little to worry about: according to a Jan. 18 Times report, Major-General Ali Jafari, the head of Iran's IRGC, was welcomed into Baghdad's "Green Zone" in late December for talks with U.S. officials about the future of Iraqi security. So much for the significance of the IRGC's designation as a foreign terrorist organization by the Bush administration last year.

Three times in recent weeks, IRGC naval forces brazenly sent fast attack patrol boats against U.S. naval ships in the Persian Gulf, including the much-publicized Jan. 5 Strait of Hormuz confrontation in which five IRGC boats took on American ships for close to half an hour with no response whatsoever from the U.S. side other than some evasive maneuvers.

Desperately misplaced efforts by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to demonstrate U.S. sympathy for Palestinian terrorists by comparing them to the segregated southern blacks of her youth ensured that any incipient impulse toward settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict evaporated rapidly after the showcase Annapolis conference of late November.

Israeli diplomats, forced at Arab request by U.S. State Department hosts to enter conference proceedings by a back door so as to avoid unwanted contact, understood implicitly the new and alarming willingness of their erstwhile superpower ally to throw them under the bus for the sake of a quixotic quest for "also ran" mention in history book chapters on Middle East "peacemaking."

Other Iranian neighbors also got the message of waning U.S. resolve. When Saudi King Abdullah walked into the Dec. 3 Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Doha, Qatar, hand-in-hand with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, there was no mistaking the significance of the moment.

The invitation to Ahmadinejad, the first foreign leader ever to be invited to a GCC summit, obviously came before the release of the U.S. Iran NIE, but Arab recognition of the new strong horse in the neighborhood clearly parallels dangerous recent decisions to seek nuclear programs of their own as well as large-scale purchases of conventional weapons.

Iran's first-ever invitation to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in mid-2007 likewise highlighted its rising stature in Central Asia as this ostensibly anti-terrorism regional security cooperative revealed its true anti-U.S. nature with a warm welcome for the foremost state sponsor of terrorism in the world. While American influence in the Russia-China dominated SCO has always been non-existent, the inclusion of the rising Shia power marked a distinct, in-your-face move to expand the group's anti-U.S. agenda.

With barely 12 months left in the Bush administration, the world community is adrift as the firm hand on the tiller of American foreign policy goes limp. The U.S.'s European allies are left bewildered in the unfamiliar position of greater skepticism about Iran's nuclear weapons program than the United States itself; even the usually tolerant International Atomic Energy Agency claims the U.S. Iran NIE goes too far in absolving Iran of pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program.

China and Russia, which know perfectly well how advanced Iran's nuclear weapons program is (because they are among its primary suppliers), now move aggressively to solidify economic and energy relationships, while playing the spoilers' role with U.N. Security Council sanctions efforts.

Less powerful regional neighbors calculate their chances as the United States seeks their backing against Iran but offers little of its own. Most worrisome of all is gauging the Israeli reaction to being left dangling as Iranian long-range missile tests and uranium enrichment programs permit no doubts about Tehran's intentions toward the Jewish state.

The failure of the Bush administration to lead creates an international instability that is far more dangerous to global security than the firm stance in support of freedom and democracy with which this president began his term. Rogue states and their terrorist affiliates thrive in a climate of uncertainty.

In the absence of credible deterrence, their aggression only becomes bolder, making the ultimate showdown inevitably more violent. It is time for this president to demonstrate once again the resolve that characterized his post-9/11 management of American foreign policy. The security of the nation and world depend on it.

Clare M. Lopez is a consultant for Middle East, counterterrorism, and WMD issues who speaks and publishes widely. She is the vice president of the Intelligence Summit, a non-profit educational forum, and staff lecturer at the CI Centre.

This column was printed with the express permission of the author.

SHORT TAKE: What's in a Name? — The Term Islamofascism
By Scott W. Winchell, SVP, Gerard Group International

James Carroll's Islamofascism's Ill Political Wind editorial published in the Boston Globe on January 21, 2008 demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of the term Islamofascism and its application to barbarians who wish "us" all dead. He equates the use of the term in our political discussions and debates to religious intolerance and then calls the term a "code word" based on a "deep religious prejudice" derived from conservative American Christians who overlook their religions' own past fascist record.

Because of this, he believes we are doing more harm to ourselves because it is "a sweeping denigration of Islam." I listened to most of the debates intently and I did not hear our political candidates on either side of the aisle castigating all Muslims, just the barbaric Islamofascists who threaten our very existence. To what extreme does he take this argument? He writes that "the public realm has been invaded by a certain kind of narrow Christian enthusiasm that denigrates other religions, especially Islam." I fail to see the connection.

He believes this deep religious prejudice prevents "us" from finding peace in the Middle East. Peace in the Middle East to these barbarians means a zero population of Jews and Christians, not co-existence. Carroll's next leap is that this "religious intolerance" has somehow caused "us" to have a "Christian Zionist" dream of a god-sponsored Jewish state and ultimate conversion of the Jews to Jesus." I call that a serious leap of "faith."

Stalin (Atheist later, Baptized Russian Orthodox Catholic), Mussolini (Catholic), and Hitler (Catholic) were Fascists, and were barbaric killers, but Islamofascism, a real player whose roots were aligned with Hitler in World War II has transcended even these criminals. The threat is real and growing, make no mistake about that.

Islamofascism is a "code word" — a code word for what? The term is very precise, and one needs only to listen to the actual words of the Islamofascists like Sheik Ibrahim Mudeiris of Gaza City to understand why the term is fitting and correct. These barbarians are both Islamic and Fascist in their belief that world domination (not self-governance) based on Sharia law, is the destiny of all peoples. This domination they seek excludes all others, not just "us." How much simpler can it be?

He claims that there is no parallel in history of combining a religious term with a style of governing. So what? Why does there always have to be a parallel? In the Islamofascist's version of Islam, there is no separation between religion and governance so there should be no separation between the two words. Islamofascism has no borders, what are we supposed to call it?

Carroll castigates people like John McCain for understanding this "transcendent" war against "us" (non-Muslims) by writing that the militant Muslims are primarily at war with their own people, not "us." According to Carroll, they regard many fellow Muslims as decadent apostates. He is missing the point entirely in his very own words. In Islamofascism, the "us" also includes Muslims who do not believe as they do.

When one's argument is based on fallacy and willful disregard for the truth, the argument fails completely. I think the religious intolerance is Carroll's."Don't trouble me with facts, I already made up my mind" should be his motto. When the Islamofascists knock your door, Mr. Carroll, I do not think it will be to borrow a cup of sugar.

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