Friday, August 31, 2007

The Danger of Terrorist Cells in the US

EDITORIAL - By Ilana Freedman

Recent reports regarding the presence of terrorist cells throughout the United States have been coming from official government agencies. Gerard Group's own sources confirm this information.

We have been reporting on this for some time. A recent edition of HQ Intel - Alert Private Intelligence Report says, "There are more than 50 Islamic terrorist cells and nearly one thousand individuals identified as operable threats suspected to by presently inside the United States."

We consider this estimate to be very conservative. Our best information indicates that there are active cells in virtually every state in the Union, with concentrations of activity and large organizational centers in such locations as Northern Virginia (just outside Washington, DC), Michigan, Arizona, Ohio, New York, Florida, California, and Illinois.

The apparent goal of al Qaeda to deliver a nuclear or dirty bomb to one or more of our major cities has been given an increasing level of credence. This was compounded by last week's alarm regarding marine facilities in Seattle, where what seems to have been a dry run took place on one of the ferries. There is also concern there about the possibility of an attempt on one of the cruise ships for which Seattle is a port of call.

In another area, computer forensic specialists have found e-mail addresses for individuals in the United States on the same password-protected e-mail chains used by those associated with the recent bomb plot in the UK. The site connected them all to al Qaeda.

While specific intelligence on an imminent attack seems to be eluding our intelligence agencies, it is clear from all of our sources that one or more major events are being planned, and training is taking place in our own backyards. We take all of these reports very seriously.

Ilana Freedman, Editor

America Can Never Benefit From Prolonged Warfare

Sun-Tzu, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and the War on Terror

By: Maj. General Paul E. Vallely (USA/Ret.)

Some of the transformations of strategy, tactics and weapons technology that are taking place today would have been unimaginable only a few years ago. Still, certain ancient and medieval principles of warfare remain valid. The same can surely be said for the more modern ideas of Carl von Clausewitz, B.H. Liddell Hart and Antione Jomini. These principles and ideas can be ignored now only at substantial risk.

Consider, especially, Sun-Tzu. Chinese military thought originated amid Neolithic village conflicts almost five thousand years ago. But it was Sun-Tzu's THE ART OF WAR, written in the fifth century BCE that synthesized a set of principles for victory. At best, the full corpus of Sun-Tzu's works and those of the other great strategists should now be studied by our leaders. Indeed, the timeless principles of war apply even more to today's global conflicts than they did to past historic conflicts.

The United States now needs to re-evaluate the very meanings of power in world politics, with particular reference to principles that seek victory in warfare that is not prolonged. The first principle, "Objective," states: When undertaking any mission, commanders should have a clear understanding of the expected outcome and its impact. Today we call it the "endgame." Following Clausewitz and Sun-Tzu, commanders at every level need to identify tangible political ends and to understand precisely how military application can best achieve these goals.

Another principle, "Offensive," states: Offensive operations are essential to maintain the freedom of action necessary for success, exploit vulnerabilities and react to rapidly changing circumstances. America's leaders should also apply Sun-Tzu's principles concerning certain alternatives to war. The primary objective of every state should be to weaken enemy states (today, states that support terror, e.g. Iran and Syria) without actually engaging in armed combat. This objective links the ideal of "complete victory" to a "strategy for planning offensives." "One who cannot be victorious assumes a defensive posture; one who can be victorious, attacks."

The principle of "Mass" outlines that commanders at all levels aggregate the effects of combat power in time and space to overwhelm enemies or to gain control of the situation. Time in warfare applies the elements of combat power against multiple targets simultaneously, and space concentrates the effects of different elements of combat power against a single target.

There is another section of the Art Of War that can especially help the United States. This is Sun-Tzu's repeated emphasis on the "unorthodox" or, as we prefer to call it today, unconventional warfare. We must, from a high-level strategic view, look at this current global war as combating an enemy who fights in a completely unorthodox manner, and we must fight him the very same way, but more cleverly and more effectively. We must use our full military and intellectual arsenal as a super power to bring victory sooner rather than later. This can be done only with a specific endgame in mind, and with a corollary commitment to victory.

Drawn from Taoism, the ancient strategist observes: "...in battle, one engages with the orthodox and gains victory through the unorthodox." In an especially complex passage, Sun-Tzu discusses how the orthodox may be used in unorthodox ways, while an orthodox attack may be unorthodox when it is unexpected. Taken seriously by our strategic planners, this passage could represent a subtle tool for strategic and tactical implementation.

For the United States, the "unorthodox" should now be fashioned not only on the battlefield, but also long before the battle. For now, every enemy state knows almost exactly how the United States will initiate and conduct major military action, and how it will respond to armed attack and armed conflict. If, however, the United States did not always signal perfect rationality to its enemies, it could significantly enhance both its overall deterrence posture and its essential capacity to carry out certain preemption options. This same lesson applies to U.S. diplomacy and politics, which are also too often mired in complete predictability.

Paul E. Vallely, Major General, US Army (Ret.), is co-author (with Lt. General Thomas McInerney) of Endgame: The Blueprint For Victory in the War on Terror, and is radio talk show host of "Stand Up America."

Russia and Islam are not Separate

Why Russia backs Al-Qaeda

By Konstantin Preobrazhensky

Americans generally believe that Russia is afraid of Islamic terrorism as much as the U.S.A. They are reminded of the war in Chechnya, the hostage crisis at the Beslan School in 2004 and at the Moscow Theater in 2002, and of the apartment house blasts in Moscow in 1999, where over 200 people were killed. It is clear that Russians are also targets of terrorism today.

But in all these events, the participation of the FSB, Federal Security Service, inheritor to the KGB, is also clear. Their involvement in the Moscow blasts has been proven by lawyer Mikhail Trepashkin, a former FSB Colonel. For this he was illegally imprisoned, and is now suffering torture and deprivation of medical assistance, from which he is not likely to survive.

A key distinction between Russian and American attitudes towards Islamic terrorism is that while for America terrorism is largely seen as an exterior menace, Russia uses terrorism as an object as a tool of the state for manipulation in and outside the home country. Islamic terrorism is only part of the world of terrorism. Long before Islamic terrorism became a global threat, the KGB had used terrorism to facilitate the victory of world Communism.

This leads to the logical connection between Russian and Islamic terrorism. The late Alexander Litvinenko, poisoned in London in November, 2006, told me that his former FSB colleagues had trained famous Al-Qaeda terrorists Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Juma Namangoniy during the 1980s and 1990s. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, one of the world's most wanted terrorists, has been responsible for the murder of U.S. nationals outside the United States. Before his death, Juma Namangoniy (Jumabai Hojiyev), a native of Soviet Uzbekistan, was a right-hand man of Osama bin Laden in charge of the Taliban's northern front in Afghanistan.

In 1996, Alexander Litvinenko was responsible for securing the secrecy of Al-Zawahiri's arrival in Russia, who was trained by FSB instructors in Dagestan, Northern Caucasus, in 1996-1997.

At that time, Litvinenko was the Head of the Subdivision for Internationally Wanted Terrorists of the First Department of the Operative-Inquiry Directorate of the FSB Anti-Terrorist Department. He was ordered to undertake the delicate mission of securing Al-Zawahiri from unintentional disclosure by the Russian police. Though Al-Zawahiri had been brought to Russia by the FSB using a false passport, it was still possible for the police to learn about his arrival and report to Moscow for verification. Such a process could disclose Al-Zawahiri as an FSB collaborator.

In order to prevent this, Litvinenko visited a group of the highly placed police officers to notify them in advance. "If you get information about some suspicious Arabs arriving in the Caucasus, please report it to me before informing your leadership", he told them.

Juma Namangoniy was once a student of the Saboteur Training Center of the First Chief Directorate of the KGB in 1989-91. The school was notorious for the international terrorists who matriculated from it. It now belongs to the FSB, and since only KGB staff officers were allowed to study there, Juma Namangoniy's presence clearly suggests that he was much more than a civil collaborator.

Mohammed Atta, the pilot of the first plane to crash into the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, had met with a senior Iraqi intelligence agent in Prague, Czech Republic, five months before the attack. But Iraqi intelligence was just a client of Russia's intelligence service. It brings a new understanding to the fact that President Putin was the first foreign President to call President Bush on 9/11. One may conjecture that he knew in advance what was to happen.

Muslim Name and Communist Heart

Tartars have always been patriotic to Russia. Their independent kingdom was conquered by Russia in the 16th century, but their gentry were allowed to join the Russian upper class and enjoy all its privileges. Even today, many Russian families of noble origin have Tartar origins. Russia has a half-millennium of experience in turning conquered Muslim nations into obedient citizens by bribing their elite.

There are many Soviet Muslims, therefore, who seem to face no conflict of spirit. One can be a Muslim in name only, whose heart belongs to Communism. There have been a lot of such people among Russian Muslims, especially among the Tartars. The Soviet Union has typically preferred to appoint them as ambassadors to Muslim countries. Their Muslim names give them a pass to the local society, but their Communist hearts order them to serve world Communism and not the world of Islam.

In the Soviet period, the highest leadership of the Muslim republics like Uzbekistan were unofficially allowed to practice Islam under the guise of folk rites, even though their Russian colleagues were severely reprimanded for participating in such Christian "rites" as Christmas or Easter. Unlike today, Soviet cartoonists were able to mock Islam as they mocked all other religions and it didn't bring any special reaction.

Muslims of the Uzbek and other Central Asian republics' elite joined the KGB intelligence in order to spy on fellow Muslim countries. In the KGB, I have met a lot of such quasi-Muslim officers.

Russia Grows Muslim

Putin continues the traditional Russian policy of giving privileges to the Muslim elite. Today's Russian Minister of Healthcare, Mikhail Zurabov, is a Chechen. His political agenda includes the total destruction of the Russian healthcare system, looking like revenge for the war in Chechnya. Putin shows no concern over that.

Strategically Russia is surrendering to the Muslim world. The Russian population is declining rapidly, being undermined by 70 years of Communist experiment and the cold indifference of post-communist rulers. Annually, Russia is losing 900 thousand people who are being replaced by Muslims from the Caucasus and Central Asia. Islam is now the second-largest religion in Russia, where it may total up to 28 million adherents. Because of this, Russia was able to join the Organization of the Islamic Conference in 2003.

Russia's great qualitative population change represents both a departure from the past and a strengthening link with it. The synergies between the history of Russia's national policies of terrorism and the radical Islamic terrorism that it is spreading around the world are natural partners that may severely impact on America's own future.

Konstantin Preobrazhensky, a former Lt. Colonel in the KGB who defected to the United States in 1993, is an intelligence expert and specialist on Japan, about which he has written six books. His newest book Russian-American, A New KGB Asset will be published in late 2007.

Practical Preparedness

Tips for Staying Safe - Part 1

Many of our readers are active in law enforcement and homeland security, and are already actively involved in counter measures and post-attack preparations. But for those who are not, we have these words that we hope you will consider:

This is not our government's war - it is our war and it is we, the civilians, who will be on the front lines. That makes us "first defenders" and our responsibility to America is great. So think about what you can do to keep yourself, your family, your community, your employees safer. Here's a place to start:

1. Have a Plan – Consider all possible scenarios that might impact your environment and identify actions that you can take to ensure or increase your safety, and that of those for whom you have responsibility. The more scenarios you consider and find solutions for, the safer you are likely to be in the event of a real attack. When you create your plans, consider what you will do if you need to evacuate, or shelter in place - perhaps for an extended period of time. Also consider what you will do if there are no communication channels – no cell phone service, no electricity, or no ability to travel.

2. Be Prepared – Prepare a 'go bag' that you can grab quickly in the event of an emergency evacuation. It should contain a change of clothes, essential medicines, a wind-up or battery powered radio, water, an extra pair of glasses and other necessary items. You should also be prepared to stay put for an extended period of time - so you should put in a store of water and canned food (with a non-electric can opener) that can last you for at least a week, if not longer.

3. Train yourself, your family, your employees – Once you have a plan and are prepared for a variety of circumstances, take the time to practice your plan, not only in your head, but by walking through it. And not just by yourself, but with your family – and certainly, if you are responsible for others at work, with your personnel. The practice will help you all understand where your plan may need to be tweaked to provide a better solution. The practice will help you all to avoid panic in a real emergency and empower you with the knowledge that there are things you can do to improve your chances of surviving a real attack.

By: Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

(Next Issue - Ensuring Continuity)

Short Takes

CNN Does it Again

CNN's recent series "God's Warriors", narrated by Christiane Amanpour, proved once again that this cable channel is an effective propaganda machine for all that America should despise.

Finding moral equivalence between Evangelical Christians and Muslim suicide terrorists was as offensive as it was preposterous. Using individuals from a small fringe population in Israel as though they represented the broader Israeli point of view, and distorting history by ignoring critical causative factors, only supported the broader observation that Amanpour was neither accurate nor fair in her presentation.

She continually referred, for example, to the land "occupied" during that war without once referring to the fact that Israel was attacked from all sides by Syria, Egypt, and Jordan, and Egypt initially instigated the war by closing the narrow Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping, creating a naval blockade, in contravention of international law and an act of war.

She also used the re-establishment of Kfar Etzion, a town south of Jerusalem, after the Six Day War to show how Israelis 'tricked' the world. She conveniently neglected to mention that the reason that the settlement had to be re-established was that its entire Jewish population of 220 men, women, and children had been savagely butchered in 1948 by the armies of two Arab legions. A number of those who returned to build this town were the descendents of those who died there protecting their homes.

Amanpour's program of disinformation and revisionist history emphasized the thoughtfulness of Muslims, with only a little time given to the jihadists, who represent the real Muslim warriors devoted to killing others for their own self-fulfillment. This was at the expense of Jews and Christians, who got the short end of the stick in her assessment of the religious commitment of the people she called "God's Warriors".

She proved that she cannot be taken seriously as either a journalist or commentator on current history. Her bias is clear and CNN's complicity in this perversion of journalism should be equally condemned.

By: Ilana Freedman, Editor and CEO, Gerard Group International

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