October 27, 2004 Bulletin

Pre-election threats

There are many indications that a major terrorist offensive is planned for the pre-election period that ends on Tuesday, November 2. Recent intelligence indicates that the attacks will be aimed at weakening President Bush's standing among the voters. Significantly, GGi analysts believe that his greatest vulnerability is in Iraq rather than on the home front, and that the offensive is therefore most likely to take place there.

Our analysts believe that both Arab governments and terrorist leaders lean towards a 'regime change' in the United States and prefer to face a new Kerry government, which they believe will be unable or unwilling to take a strong position against them or their activities. The aim is therefore to further destabilize the situation in Iraq with a dramatic offensive during this final pre-election period. They believe that an already uncomfortable American public will be infuriated by a major loss of American lives in Iraq and will therefore vote overwhelmingly for Kerry.

This would indicate a temporary shift in geographic emphasis until America's leadership is decided, but not one that is likely to last. We believe that the greater goal of destabilizing American economic interests will still be at the top of the terrorist wish list and that corporate leaders will face increasing risk after the elections.

A new al-Qaeda video, obtained by ABC News, threatens the United States with terrorist attacks which they claim will 'dwarf' the attacks of September 11, 2001. The story first broke on Drudgereport.com. This is not usually a source for our intelligence analysis, but while ABC has apparently chosen to not yet release the video to the public, several other news organizations have reportedly received confirmation from various government sources that the video is now being authenticated by the CIA.

Here's what we do know: al-Qaeda is anxious to influence our elections, perhaps the way they did in Spain. In the new video, according to reports, they claim that "America has brought this on itself by electing George Bush, who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda".

If the video is authentic, it is another attempt by al-Qaeda to induce fear among America and disrupt American society. Their Catch-22 is that as long as no attack takes place here, Americans will fear their propaganda less and less. Neverhtheless, their PR machine is hard at work spreading disinformation to oth confuse and scare us.

There are now three theaters of war for al-Qaeda: Iraq, the United States, and the rest of the world. With only a few days left before the presidential election, their greatest advantage is the element of surprise.

GGi analysts believe that al-Qaeda's choice of targets is critical: if they attack in Iraq, with massive American casualties, we believe it will work for Kerry. If they attack in the US, it will help the President. This is the worst form of international meddling into our electoral process, and it is an extremely dangerous tactic either way.

GGi analysts will continue to monitor this evolving situation.

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