Iran's North Korean Connection

GERARD GROUP INTERNATIONAL INC

By Ilana Freedman

Friday, July 21, 2006

A growing body of intelligence that points to a strengthening relationship between North Korea and Iran has been a topic of our concern for some time. These concerns have now entered the public domain.

It is clear that Iran has received technology and missiles from Kim Jong-Il and news reports from South Korea and Japan indicate that Iranian engineers were invited to Korea to observe the controversial test missile launchings that occurred on July 4.

Iran and North Korea have found common ground in their desire to bring pain to the United States and to build independent military capabilities that threaten the rest of the world. Although their visions for the outcome are quite different (North Korea certainly has no possible interest in a global Islamic caliphate) and Kim Jon-Il may be a naïve pawn in the Iranian game, the dangers of an alliance between North Korea and Iran, unlikely bedfellows as they may be, seems to be grounded in reliable fact. It is a daunting possibility and should not be underestimated or dismissed lightly.

America's New Mid-East Policy

The Bush administration has taken a strong hands-off position in the accelerating Mid-East conflagration, and it is a sharp departure from past US policy. What is different today that has brought about this dramatic change?

First of all, the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has provided America with a very different picture of the nature of war in today's world. We now recognize that fighting terrorists poses a totally different set of dynamics and challenges to a military designed for conventional warfare. Moreover, the clear participation of known terror-sponsoring states, Iran and Syria, makes the dangers of the current situation all the more critical, a fact President Bush seems to see with extraordinary clarity.

The call for a cessation of hostilities by both sides, suggested by UN General Secretary Kofi Anan yesterday, raises the issue of inappropriate equivalence. With whom is Israel supposed to discuss a cease fire? In what context should a sovereign state ever negotiate with a terrorist organization? And if Israel is compelled to do so by world opinion, it is clear that Hezbollah will use the respite to regroup for future attacks and Iran will have gained a striking advantage in its war-mongering.

A better approach will be for America to begin providing a strong program of support for the Lebanese government, one that will enable it to stand up to Hezbollah and build the democratic state as it promised to do. It is essential, as we consider the current situation, that Hezbollah is totally disabled and removed from the region. Despite its protestations otherwise, Hezbollah is a tightly controlled client of Iran and Syria and a destabilizing force throughout the region. Moreover, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are still providing support for Hezbollah and making every effort to resupply them (despite Israel's best efforts to destroy the supply routes).

Now that Israel has largely shattered the Hezbollah infrastructure along its northern border, it is essential and urgent that we fill the void that threatens to topple the Lebanese government. Time is of the essence and we must now make every effort to provide a stabilizing influence in Lebanon before time runs out. Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora must become part of the solution, but he must be assured that we will stand by him in his efforts to stand up to Hezbollah and, more important, Iran. If we are not successful in turning this situation around, we risk losing control of the entire region to Iran, a threat we cannot afford to face.

Commentary is written by Ilana Freedman, CEO of Gerard Group and Senior Intelligence Analyst. Comments and questions should be addressed to ilana@gerardgroup.com.

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